joining us for a bit of a debate around this is head of developed markets rate strategy at citi. thanks for coming along. so what are you expecting from the ecb, when will they move next? >> i think today will be a monday event. the market is not pricing any in move. if there's going to be a change in policy, it will happen probably towards the end of the year and then most likely forecast also another change in the first quarter much next year. so it's all about expectations for the future. >> how do you trade around those expectations? >> the way to trade around it is to carry. the ecb has carry rich. you have on libor a quite steep structure. and so what we expect our baseline scenario to profit from long positions there. >> let's put this into the context of what's going on. we have the central banks and developed markets, the bank of englands as well today, most people agree that we won't get anything from the bank of england until november, december. any thoughts there? >> i think with regards to the fmoc minutes, what we'll get is most likely some sort of sense for unhappi